Baker Mayfield Touchdowns - Player Prop Bet Week 3

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Baker Mayfield

NFL · Player Props

Baker Mayfield

QB · Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Touchdowns

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Minnesota Vikings · Week 3, 2026

Updated Sep 27, 2026 7:57 PM EST

Analysis

Baker Mayfield Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+574/-719).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Buccaneers have been the 3rd-most pass-focused offense in football near the goal line (in a neutral context) this year with a 77.3% red zone pass rate.
The 10th-largest volume of plays in football have been run by the Buccaneers since the start of last season (a whopping 58.3 per game on average).
Baker Mayfield's throwing accuracy has been refined this season, with his Adjusted Completion% rising from 64.0% to 71.4%.
When it comes to the defensive ends' role in run defense, Minnesota's group of DEs has been phenomenal since the start of last season, profiling as the best in football.

Favors Under

The leading projections forecast this game to see the smallest number of plays run out of all the games this week at 120.9 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
In this contest, Baker Mayfield is projected by our trusted projection set to average the 9th-fewest pass attempts out of all quarterbacks with 31.3.
Opposing teams have averaged 28.9 pass attempts per game vs. the Minnesota Vikings defense since the start of last season: 2nd-fewest in football.
The leading projections forecast Baker Mayfield to be a much bigger part of his offense's running game near the goal line in this contest (17.6% projected Red Zone Carry Share) than he has been since the start of last season (1.4% in games he has played).
Since the start of last season, the formidable Vikings defense has surrendered a paltry 66.6% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing offenses: the 3rd-best rate in the NFL.

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