Baker Mayfield Touchdowns - Player Prop Bet Week 1

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NFL · Player Props

Baker Mayfield

QB · Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Touchdowns

Cincinnati Bengals vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers · Week 1, 2026

Updated Sep 13, 2026 4:32 PM EST

Analysis

Baker Mayfield Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+614/-700).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -506 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -700.

Key Factors

Favors Over

This week's line suggests a passing game script for the Buccaneers, who are -3.5-point underdogs.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have run the 9th-most plays in football last year, totaling a massive 58.9 plays per game.
Sitting at zero red zone rush attempts last year, Baker Mayfield's immobility makes him a no threat as a ball-carrier near the goal line.
The Bengals defense has allowed the 4th-most TDs through the air in the league: 1.88 per game last year.

Favors Under

Given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Buccaneers to pass on 55.2% of their chances: the 5th-lowest rate on the slate this week.
At the moment, the 9th-most run-focused team in football in the red zone (46.2% context-neutralized) according to the projections is the Buccaneers.
The predictive model expects this game to have the 2nd-lowest volume of plays run among all games this week at 124.3 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
In this game, Baker Mayfield is anticipated by the projections to wind up with the 7th-fewest pass attempts out of all quarterbacks with 32.0.
Last year, the porous Cincinnati Bengals run defense has conceded a colossal 1.06 TDs on the ground per game to opposing teams: the 10th-biggest rate in the NFL.