Baker Mayfield TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 9

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Baker Mayfield

NFL · Player Props

Baker Mayfield

QB · Tampa Bay Buccaneers

TD Passes

Chicago Bears vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers · Week 9, 2026

Updated Nov 8, 2026 8:22 PM EST

Analysis

Baker Mayfield TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+153/-163).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ +138 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ +153.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Buccaneers are a 6-point underdog in this week's contest, likely leading to a passing game script.
The Bears cornerbacks rank as the worst unit in the NFL this year in defending receivers.

Favors Under

Accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Buccaneers to pass on 50.5% of their chances: the 2nd-lowest clip on the slate this week.
The predictive model expects the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to be the 7th-least pass-oriented team in the league near the end zone (context-neutralized) at the moment with a 52.9% red zone pass rate.
Given their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are predicted by the predictive model to call just 63.1 offensive plays in this contest: the 9th-lowest number among all teams this week.
The model projects Baker Mayfield to throw 29.7 passes in this week's game, on average: the 4th-fewest among all QBs.
Opposing QBs teams have been hesitant to pass too much against the Bears, averaging the 4th-fewest attempts in football (a measly 30.5 per game) this year.

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