Baker Mayfield TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 8

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Baker Mayfield

NFL · Player Props

Baker Mayfield

QB · Tampa Bay Buccaneers

TD Passes

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Atlanta Falcons · Week 8, 2026

Updated Oct 30, 2026 5:07 PM EST

Analysis

Baker Mayfield TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+114/-134).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ +106 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ +114.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 44.0 pass attempts per game against the Falcons defense this year: 2nd-most in football.
Opposing teams have completed passes at the 9th-highest rate in the NFL against the Falcons defense this year (71.7% Adjusted Completion%).
The Atlanta Falcons defense has given up the 9th-most passing TDs in the NFL: 1.57 per game this year.

Favors Under

Given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to pass on 52.3% of their opportunities: the 2nd-lowest rate among all teams this week.
With a 52.3% rate of throwing the ball near the goal line (in a neutral context) this year, the 10th-least pass-focused offense in the league in this respect has been the Buccaneers.
Given the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this contest is anticipated by the predictive model to see just 126.1 total plays called: the 2nd-lowest number among all games this week.
Our trusted projections expect Baker Mayfield to attempt 31.0 passes in this game, on balance: the 4th-fewest out of all QBs.
With a terrible ratio of only 0.75 per game (18th percentile), Baker Mayfield places among the bottom touchdown passers in the NFL this year.

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