Baker Mayfield TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 7

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Baker Mayfield

NFL · Player Props

Baker Mayfield

QB · Tampa Bay Buccaneers

TD Passes

Carolina Panthers vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers · Week 7, 2026

Updated Oct 25, 2026 11:57 AM EST

Analysis

Baker Mayfield TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+130/-170).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ +155 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ +130.

Key Factors

Favors Over

At a -3-point disadvantage, the Buccaneers are underdogs in this week's game, indicating more of an emphasis on throwing than their usual game plan.
Opposing offenses have averaged 39.6 pass attempts per game vs. the Carolina Panthers defense this year: 5th-most in football.

Favors Under

The leading projections forecast the Buccaneers to be the 8th-least pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 57.3% pass rate, accounting for their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.
The Buccaneers offense has played at the 9th-slowest tempo in football (in a neutral context) this year, averaging 29.00 seconds per snap.
The leading projections forecast Baker Mayfield to attempt 34.6 passes in this game, on balance: the 9th-fewest among all QBs.
This year, the imposing Carolina Panthers defense has given up a mere 67.4% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing offenses: the 7th-smallest rate in football.
When it comes to safeties in defending receivers, Carolina's collection of safeties has been phenomenal this year, profiling as the 7th-best in the league.

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