Baker Mayfield TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 3

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NFL · Player Props

Baker Mayfield

QB · Tampa Bay Buccaneers

TD Passes

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Minnesota Vikings · Week 3, 2026

Updated Sep 27, 2026 7:57 PM EST

Analysis

Baker Mayfield TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+140/-165).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ +145 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ +140.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Buccaneers have been the 3rd-most pass-focused offense in football near the goal line (in a neutral context) this year with a 77.3% red zone pass rate.
The 10th-largest volume of plays in football have been run by the Buccaneers since the start of last season (a whopping 58.3 per game on average).
Baker Mayfield's throwing accuracy has been refined this season, with his Adjusted Completion% rising from 64.0% to 71.4%.
The Minnesota Vikings safeties profile as the 2nd-worst collection of safeties in the league since the start of last season in covering receivers.

Favors Under

The leading projections forecast this game to see the smallest number of plays run out of all the games this week at 120.9 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
In this contest, Baker Mayfield is projected by our trusted projection set to average the 9th-fewest pass attempts out of all quarterbacks with 31.3.
Opposing teams have averaged 28.9 pass attempts per game vs. the Minnesota Vikings defense since the start of last season: 2nd-fewest in football.
Since the start of last season, the formidable Vikings defense has surrendered a paltry 66.6% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing offenses: the 3rd-best rate in the NFL.
The Vikings defense has conceded the 2nd-fewest TDs through the air in football: 0.89 per game since the start of last season.