Baker Mayfield TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 2

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NFL · Player Props

Baker Mayfield

QB · Tampa Bay Buccaneers

TD Passes

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Cleveland Browns · Week 2, 2026

Updated Sep 20, 2026 1:07 PM EST

Analysis

Baker Mayfield TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-125/+106).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ -127 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ -125.

Key Factors

Favors Over

With a 77.8% rate of throwing the ball near the goal line (context-neutralized) this year, the 6th-most pass-focused team in the league in this respect has been the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
The Browns safeties grade out as the 8th-best safety corps in the NFL last year in covering pass-catchers.

Favors Under

With a 8-point advantage, the Buccaneers are a heavy favorite this week, implying much more of a reliance on running than their standard game plan.
The leading projections forecast the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to be the 4th-least pass-focused offense on the slate this week with a 51.6% pass rate, based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.
The model projects this game to see the 2nd-lowest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 121.7 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Our trusted projections expect Baker Mayfield to throw 29.4 passes this week, on average: the fewest among all quarterbacks.
Opposing offenses have averaged 28.5 pass attempts per game versus the Browns defense since the start of last season: 2nd-fewest in the league.