Baker Mayfield TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 1

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Baker Mayfield

NFL · Player Props

Baker Mayfield

QB · Tampa Bay Buccaneers

TD Passes

Cincinnati Bengals vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers · Week 1, 2026

Updated Sep 13, 2026 4:32 PM EST

Analysis

Baker Mayfield TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-102/-110).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ -108 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

This week's line suggests a passing game script for the Buccaneers, who are -3.5-point underdogs.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have run the 9th-most plays in football last year, totaling a massive 58.9 plays per game.
The Bengals defense has allowed the 4th-most TDs through the air in the league: 1.88 per game last year.

Favors Under

Given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Buccaneers to pass on 55.2% of their chances: the 5th-lowest rate on the slate this week.
At the present time, the 9th-least pass-heavy offense in the league in the red zone (53.8% adjusted for context) according to the projection model is the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
The predictive model expects this game to have the 2nd-lowest volume of plays run among all games this week at 124.3 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
In this game, Baker Mayfield is anticipated by the projections to wind up with the 7th-fewest pass attempts out of all quarterbacks with 32.0.
The Cincinnati Bengals cornerbacks project as the 7th-best collection of CBs in the league last year in defending pass-catchers.

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