Baker Mayfield TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 9

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Baker Mayfield

NFL · Player Props

Baker Mayfield

QB · Tampa Bay Buccaneers

TD Passes

Kansas City Chiefs vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers · Week 9, 2024

Updated Nov 5, 2024 1:11 AM EST

Analysis

Baker Mayfield TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+100/-135).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ +130 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ +100.

Key Factors

Favors Over

At a -8.5-point disadvantage, the Buccaneers are heavy underdogs in this week's game, suggesting much more of a focus on throwing than their typical approach.
Our trusted projections expect the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to be the 3rd-most pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 63.0% pass rate, accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.
Our trusted projections expect the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to be the 7th-most pass-focused offense in the league near the end zone (in a neutral context) right now with a 59.1% red zone pass rate.
Given the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this game is forecasted by the projections to have 130.0 total plays run: the 5th-most out of all the games this week.
In throwing a colossal 35.9 pass attempts per game this year, Baker Mayfield places among the top QBs in the NFL (90th percentile) in this respect.

Favors Under

When it comes to cornerbacks in pass coverage, Kansas City's CB corps has been tremendous this year, ranking as the 9th-best in the NFL.

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