Baker Mayfield TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 3

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Baker Mayfield

NFL · Player Props

Baker Mayfield

QB · Tampa Bay Buccaneers

TD Passes

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Denver Broncos · Week 3, 2024

Updated Sep 22, 2024 7:32 PM EST

Analysis

Baker Mayfield TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-125/-105).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ +105 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ -105.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Right now, the 6th-most pass-focused team in football (62.3% in a neutral context) according to our trusted projection set is the Buccaneers.
With an impressive ratio of 1.74 per game (90th percentile), Baker Mayfield ranks as one of the best TD throwers in the league since the start of last season.
Opposing QBs have completed passes at the 3rd-highest rate in the NFL against the Denver Broncos defense since the start of last season (73.2% Adjusted Completion%).
The Denver Broncos defense has conceded the 5th-most touchdowns through the air in the NFL: 1.63 per game since the start of last season.
The Denver Broncos cornerbacks rank as the worst group of CBs in football since the start of last season in defending receivers.

Favors Under

The Buccaneers are a 3.5-point favorite in this week's contest, indicating a running game script.
Our trusted projections expect the Buccaneers to call the 6th-fewest plays on offense on the slate this week with 62.4 plays, based on their underlying propensities and game dynamics.
The 6th-smallest volume of plays in football have been called by the Buccaneers since the start of last season (a lowly 55.7 per game on average).

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