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Baker Mayfield

Baker Mayfield TD Passes
Player Prop Week 8

Buffalo Bills vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Baker Mayfield TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+145/-195).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ +160 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ +145.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Buccaneers are a big 9.5-point underdog this week, indicating an extreme passing game script.

Given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Buccaneers to pass on 61.4% of their opportunities: the 8th-highest clip among all teams this week.

When it comes to pass-blocking (and the positive effect it has on all passing offense statistics), the offensive line of the Buccaneers ranks as the 6th-best in the league this year.

This year, the poor Bills defense has been gouged for a colossal 79.2% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing quarterbacks: the 2nd-biggest rate in the league.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers boast a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Dave Canales, and the predictive model expects their pass/run mix to lean 4.6% more towards rushing than it did last season (context-neutralized).

Based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the Buccaneers are expected by the predictive model to call only 62.5 offensive plays in this game: the 7th-fewest on the slate this week.

The 10th-smallest volume of plays in the league have been run by the Buccaneers this year (a lowly 56.3 per game on average).

Opposing QBs have averaged 31.7 pass attempts per game vs. the Buffalo Bills defense this year: 4th-fewest in the league.

This year, the formidable Bills defense has yielded a meager 0.86 TDs through the air per game to opposing teams: the 4th-lowest rate in the league.

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