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Baker Mayfield

Baker Mayfield TD Passes
Player Prop Week 8

Buffalo Bills vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Baker Mayfield TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+145/-195).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ +160 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ +145.
  • The Buccaneers are a big 9.5-point underdog this week, indicating an extreme passing game script.
  • Given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Buccaneers to pass on 61.4% of their opportunities: the 8th-highest clip among all teams this week.
  • When it comes to pass-blocking (and the positive effect it has on all passing offense statistics), the offensive line of the Buccaneers ranks as the 6th-best in the league this year.
  • This year, the poor Bills defense has been gouged for a colossal 79.2% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing quarterbacks: the 2nd-biggest rate in the league.

  • The Tampa Bay Buccaneers boast a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Dave Canales, and the predictive model expects their pass/run mix to lean 4.6% more towards rushing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
  • Based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the Buccaneers are expected by the predictive model to call only 62.5 offensive plays in this game: the 7th-fewest on the slate this week.
  • The 10th-smallest volume of plays in the league have been run by the Buccaneers this year (a lowly 56.3 per game on average).
  • Opposing QBs have averaged 31.7 pass attempts per game vs. the Buffalo Bills defense this year: 4th-fewest in the league.
  • This year, the formidable Bills defense has yielded a meager 0.86 TDs through the air per game to opposing teams: the 4th-lowest rate in the league.

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