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Baker Mayfield

Baker Mayfield TD Passes
Player Prop Week 2

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Chicago Bears

Baker Mayfield TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+130/-160).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ +160 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ +130.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have called the most plays in the league since the start of last season, totaling a colossal 63.8 plays per game.

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers O-line profiles as the best in the league since the start of last season in protecting the QB, which has a strong impact on all air attack stats across the board.

Opposing offenses have completed passes at the 7th-highest level in football versus the Chicago Bears defense since the start of last season (73.2%).

The Chicago Bears linebackers grade out as the 3rd-worst LB corps in the league since the start of last season in covering pass-catchers.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers boast a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Dave Canales, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 7.6% more towards rushing than it did last season (adjusted for context).

THE BLITZ projects the Tampa Bay Buccaneers as the 7th-least pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 53.8% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.

THE BLITZ projects the Buccaneers to run the 8th-least total plays on the slate this week with 62.7 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.

THE BLITZ projects Baker Mayfield to attempt 31.0 passes in this week's contest, on average: the 3rd-least of all QBs.

Opposing QBs have averaged 27.2 pass attempts per game vs. the Chicago Bears defense since the start of last season: least in the league.

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