Baker Mayfield TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 2

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Baker Mayfield

NFL · Player Props

Baker Mayfield

QB · Tampa Bay Buccaneers

TD Passes

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Chicago Bears · Week 2, 2023

Updated Sep 17, 2023 8:01 PM UTC

Analysis

Baker Mayfield TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+130/-160).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ +160 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ +130.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have called the most plays in the league since the start of last season, totaling a colossal 63.8 plays per game.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers O-line profiles as the best in the league since the start of last season in protecting the QB, which has a strong impact on all air attack stats across the board.
Opposing offenses have completed passes at the 7th-highest level in football versus the Chicago Bears defense since the start of last season (73.2%).
The Chicago Bears linebackers grade out as the 3rd-worst LB corps in the league since the start of last season in covering pass-catchers.

Favors Under

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers boast a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Dave Canales, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 7.6% more towards rushing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
THE BLITZ projects the Tampa Bay Buccaneers as the 7th-least pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 53.8% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Buccaneers to run the 8th-least total plays on the slate this week with 62.7 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Baker Mayfield to attempt 31.0 passes in this week's contest, on average: the 3rd-least of all QBs.
Opposing QBs have averaged 27.2 pass attempts per game vs. the Chicago Bears defense since the start of last season: least in the league.

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