Baker Mayfield TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 14

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Baker Mayfield

NFL · Player Props

Baker Mayfield

QB · Tampa Bay Buccaneers

TD Passes

Atlanta Falcons vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers · Week 14, 2023

Updated Dec 10, 2023 6:01 PM EST

Analysis

Baker Mayfield TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+140/-170).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ -160 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ -170.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The leading projections forecast the Tampa Bay Buccaneers as the 7th-most pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 60.5% pass rate, given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
The leading projections forecast Baker Mayfield to attempt 36.0 passes in this week's game, on balance: the 9th-most out of all quarterbacks.
This year, the feeble Atlanta Falcons defense has been torched for a whopping 1.42 TDs through the air per game to opposing quarterbacks: the 7th-largest rate in football.
When it comes to linebackers in covering receivers, Atlanta's group of LBs has been easily exploitable this year, projecting as the 5th-worst in the league.

Favors Under

The Buccaneers boast a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Dave Canales, and the predictive model expects their pass/run mix to lean 4.9% more towards rushing than it did last year (adjusted for context).
The Buccaneers have called the 10th-fewest plays in the league this year, totaling a mere 56.2 plays per game.
With a subpar 62.3% Adjusted Completion% (18th percentile) this year, Baker Mayfield has been as one of the least accurate QBs in football.
Opposing teams have completed passes at the 6th-lowest rate in the league versus the Falcons defense this year (66.7% Adjusted Completion%).

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