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Baker Mayfield

Baker Mayfield TD Passes
Player Prop Week 13

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Carolina Panthers

Baker Mayfield TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+135/-170).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ -135 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ -170.
  • Our trusted projections expect the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to be the 5th-most pass-heavy offense in the NFL near the goal line (context-neutralized) at the present time with a 61.4% red zone pass rate.
  • This year, the anemic Carolina Panthers defense has conceded a massive 72.0% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing quarterbacks: the 9th-worst rate in the NFL.
  • As it relates to cornerbacks in covering receivers, Carolina's collection of CBs has been easily exploitable this year, profiling as the 8th-worst in the NFL.

  • Our trusted projections expect the Buccaneers offensive strategy to tilt 4.6% more towards the run game than it did last season (adjusted for context) with offensive coordinator Dave Canales now calling the plays.
  • With a 3.5-point advantage, the Buccaneers are favored in this game, suggesting more of a reliance on rushing than their usual approach.
  • The model projects this game to see the 4th-lowest volume of plays run among all games this week at 128.6 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
  • Opposing teams have averaged 30.2 pass attempts per game against the Carolina Panthers defense this year: 2nd-fewest in the league.
  • The Panthers defense has allowed the 10th-fewest TDs through the air in the league: 1.18 per game this year.

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