Baker Mayfield TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 13

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Baker Mayfield

NFL · Player Props

Baker Mayfield

QB · Tampa Bay Buccaneers

TD Passes

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Carolina Panthers · Week 13, 2023

Updated Dec 4, 2023 12:11 AM UTC

Analysis

Baker Mayfield TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+135/-170).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ -135 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ -170.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Our trusted projections expect the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to be the 5th-most pass-heavy offense in the NFL near the goal line (context-neutralized) at the present time with a 61.4% red zone pass rate.
This year, the anemic Carolina Panthers defense has conceded a massive 72.0% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing quarterbacks: the 9th-worst rate in the NFL.
As it relates to cornerbacks in covering receivers, Carolina's collection of CBs has been easily exploitable this year, profiling as the 8th-worst in the NFL.

Favors Under

Our trusted projections expect the Buccaneers offensive strategy to tilt 4.6% more towards the run game than it did last season (adjusted for context) with offensive coordinator Dave Canales now calling the plays.
With a 3.5-point advantage, the Buccaneers are favored in this game, suggesting more of a reliance on rushing than their usual approach.
The model projects this game to see the 4th-lowest volume of plays run among all games this week at 128.6 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Opposing teams have averaged 30.2 pass attempts per game against the Carolina Panthers defense this year: 2nd-fewest in the league.
The Panthers defense has allowed the 10th-fewest TDs through the air in the league: 1.18 per game this year.

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