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Baker Mayfield

Baker Mayfield TD Passes
Player Prop Week 11

San Francisco 49ers vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Baker Mayfield TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+135/-170).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ +160 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ +135.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

This week's line indicates an extreme passing game script for the Buccaneers, who are giant -13.5-point underdogs.

The predictive model expects the Buccaneers as the 3rd-most pass-focused offense on the slate this week with a 63.0% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.

The 49ers defense has been a well-known pass funnel this year, compelling opposing offenses to attempt the 9th-most passes in the NFL (38.7 per game) this year.

When it comes to protecting the quarterback (and the positive impact it has on all passing attack metrics), the offensive line of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers ranks as the 8th-best in the league this year.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers feature a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Dave Canales, and the model projects their pass/run mix to skew 5.0% more towards rushing than it did last year (context-neutralized).

Based on their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are anticipated by the projections to run just 60.0 offensive plays in this game: the lowest number on the slate this week.

This week, Baker Mayfield is forecasted by the predictive model to total the 9th-fewest pass attempts among all quarterbacks with 34.0.

The San Francisco 49ers defense has yielded the 9th-fewest TDs through the air in the NFL: 1.11 per game this year.

As it relates to linebackers in covering pass-catchers, San Francisco's collection of LBs has been exceptional this year, grading out as the 2nd-best in the NFL.

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