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Baker Mayfield

Baker Mayfield TD Passes
Player Prop Week 11

San Francisco 49ers vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Baker Mayfield TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+135/-170).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ +160 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ +135.
  • This week's line indicates an extreme passing game script for the Buccaneers, who are giant -13.5-point underdogs.
  • The predictive model expects the Buccaneers as the 3rd-most pass-focused offense on the slate this week with a 63.0% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
  • The 49ers defense has been a well-known pass funnel this year, compelling opposing offenses to attempt the 9th-most passes in the NFL (38.7 per game) this year.
  • When it comes to protecting the quarterback (and the positive impact it has on all passing attack metrics), the offensive line of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers ranks as the 8th-best in the league this year.

  • The Tampa Bay Buccaneers feature a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Dave Canales, and the model projects their pass/run mix to skew 5.0% more towards rushing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
  • Based on their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are anticipated by the projections to run just 60.0 offensive plays in this game: the lowest number on the slate this week.
  • This week, Baker Mayfield is forecasted by the predictive model to total the 9th-fewest pass attempts among all quarterbacks with 34.0.
  • The San Francisco 49ers defense has yielded the 9th-fewest TDs through the air in the NFL: 1.11 per game this year.
  • As it relates to linebackers in covering pass-catchers, San Francisco's collection of LBs has been exceptional this year, grading out as the 2nd-best in the NFL.

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