Baker Mayfield TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 10

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Baker Mayfield

NFL · Player Props

Baker Mayfield

QB · Tampa Bay Buccaneers

TD Passes

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Tennessee Titans · Week 10, 2023

Updated Nov 12, 2023 5:06 PM EST

Analysis

Baker Mayfield TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+114/-157).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The predictive model expects the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to be the 8th-most pass-oriented team in the league near the goal line (adjusted for context) at the present time with a 59.6% red zone pass rate.
When talking about pass protection (and the positive effect it has on all passing attack stats), the offensive line of the Buccaneers ranks as the 9th-best in football this year.
Opposing QBs have completed passes at the 3rd-highest rate in the NFL vs. the Titans defense this year (75.8% Adjusted Completion%).
As it relates to safeties in covering pass-catchers, Tennessee's safety corps has been easily exploitable this year, grading out as the 4th-worst in football.

Favors Under

The projections expect the Tampa Bay Buccaneers offensive strategy to tilt 4.8% more towards running than it did last season (in a neutral context) with offensive coordinator Dave Canales now calling the plays.
Accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are expected by our trusted projection set to call only 62.5 total plays in this game: the 5th-lowest number on the slate this week.
The Buccaneers have called the 10th-fewest plays in football this year, averaging just 56.8 plays per game.
The leading projections forecast Baker Mayfield to attempt 33.1 passes in this game, on balance: the 9th-fewest among all quarterbacks.
This year, the formidable Titans defense has allowed a meager 1.00 passing touchdowns per game to opposing QBs: the 3rd-lowest rate in the league.

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