Baker Mayfield Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 9

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Baker Mayfield

NFL · Player Props

Baker Mayfield

QB · Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Rushing Yards

Chicago Bears vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers · Week 9, 2026

Updated Nov 8, 2026 8:22 PM EST

Analysis

Baker Mayfield Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 17.5 (+100/-109).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 19.5 @ 0 before it was bet down to 17.5 @ -109.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The predictive model expects the Tampa Bay Buccaneers as the 2nd-most run-heavy team on the slate this week with a 49.5% run rate, given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.
When it comes to the linebackers' role in defending against the run, Chicago's collection of LBs has been atrocious this year, grading out as the worst in the league. in the league.

Favors Under

The Buccaneers are a 6-point underdog in this week's contest, likely leading to a passing game script.
Given their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are predicted by the predictive model to call just 63.1 offensive plays in this contest: the 9th-lowest number among all teams this week.
Baker Mayfield's running effectiveness has declined this season, accumulating just 3.92 adjusted yards-per-carry vs a 5.87 mark last season.
This year, the tough Bears run defense has yielded a meager 78.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground to opposing offenses: the 2nd-best in the NFL.

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