Baker Mayfield Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 7

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Baker Mayfield

NFL · Player Props

Baker Mayfield

QB · Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Rushing Yards

Carolina Panthers vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers · Week 7, 2026

Updated Oct 25, 2026 1:07 PM EST

Analysis

Baker Mayfield Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 16.5 (-108/-104).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 16.5 @ -122 before it was bet up to 16.5 @ -108.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to run on 42.7% of their downs: the 8th-highest frequency among all teams this week.
After taking on 10.3% of his offense's rushing play calls last season, Baker Mayfield has been more involved in the ground game this season, currently making up 15.4%.
Baker Mayfield comes in as one of the top quarterbacks in the NFL at grinding out extra rushing yardage, averaging an excellent 2.80 yards-after-contact this year while ranking in the 87th percentile.
The Carolina Panthers defense has produced the 3rd-worst efficiency against opposing ground games this year, yielding 5.31 adjusted yards-per-carry.
When it comes to the defensive tackles' role in stopping the run, Carolina's DT corps has been very bad this year, ranking as the 3rd-worst in the NFL. in the NFL.

Favors Under

At a -3-point disadvantage, the Buccaneers are underdogs in this week's game, indicating more of an emphasis on throwing than their usual game plan.
The Buccaneers offense has played at the 9th-slowest tempo in football (in a neutral context) this year, averaging 29.00 seconds per snap.
Baker Mayfield's 4.21 adjusted yards per carry (YPC) this season represents a remarkable diminishment in his running talent over last season's 5.87 mark.

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