Baker Mayfield Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 3

My Account Log Out

reorder

Baker Mayfield

NFL · Player Props

Baker Mayfield

QB · Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Rushing Yards

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Minnesota Vikings · Week 3, 2026

Updated Sep 27, 2026 7:57 PM EST

Analysis

Baker Mayfield Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 19.5 (-125/-103).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 17.5 @ -120 before it was bet up to 19.5 @ -125.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The 10th-largest volume of plays in football have been run by the Buccaneers since the start of last season (a whopping 58.3 per game on average).
Baker Mayfield has been a more important option in his team's rushing attack this season (18.2% Carry Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last season (10.3%).
With an excellent tally of 3.19 yards-after-contact (94th percentile), Baker Mayfield has been as one of the leading rushing quarterbacks in football this year.

Favors Under

The leading projections forecast this game to see the smallest number of plays run out of all the games this week at 120.9 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Baker Mayfield's rushing effectiveness has worsened this season, compiling a mere 3.77 adjusted yards-per-carry vs a 5.87 rate last season.
Since the start of last season, the deficient Vikings run defense has been gouged for a staggering 4.17 adjusted yards-per-carry (YPC) to opposing teams: the 23rd-highest rate in the NFL.
When it comes to the defensive ends' role in run defense, Minnesota's group of DEs has been phenomenal since the start of last season, profiling as the best in football.

More Baker Mayfield Props Data by WriteNow™

About WriteNow