Baker Mayfield Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 8

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Baker Mayfield

NFL · Player Props

Baker Mayfield

QB · Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Rushing Yards

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Atlanta Falcons · Week 8, 2024

Updated Oct 27, 2024 11:21 PM EST

Analysis

Baker Mayfield Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 19.5 (+128/-175).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 17.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 19.5 @ +128.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Given the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this game is anticipated by the predictive model to see 132.5 total plays run: the highest number out of all the games this week.
Baker Mayfield's 21.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground this season represents a remarkable growth in his rushing talent over last season's 10.0 mark.
Baker Mayfield's rushing effectiveness has gotten a boost this year, averaging 6.71 adjusted yards-per-carry compared to a mere 4.16 figure last year.
With an exceptional record of 3.18 yards-after-contact (89th percentile), Baker Mayfield places as one of the best rushing QBs in the league this year.
Opposing squads have run for the 6th-most adjusted yards in the NFL (144 per game) vs. the Falcons defense this year.

Favors Under

The leading projections forecast the Buccaneers as the 9th-least run-centric offense on the slate this week with a 39.0% run rate, given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.

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