Baker Mayfield Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 7

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Baker Mayfield

NFL · Player Props

Baker Mayfield

QB · Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Rushing Yards

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Atlanta Falcons · Week 7, 2023

Updated Oct 22, 2023 11:16 PM UTC

Analysis

Baker Mayfield Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 9.5 (-103/-125).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 13.5 @ -123 before it was bet down to 9.5 @ -125.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The leading projections forecast the Buccaneers offensive blueprint to lean 6.0% more towards the run game than it did last year (context-neutralized) with offensive coordinator Dave Canales now calling the plays.
The Buccaneers are a 3-point favorite in this game, likely leading to a running game script.
Based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to run on 44.7% of their opportunities: the 8th-greatest rate among all teams this week.
The leading projections forecast Baker Mayfield to total 4.4 carries this week, on average: the 8th-most among all quarterbacks.
Baker Mayfield has run for a lot more yards per game (14.0) this year than he did last year (7.0).

Favors Under

Based on their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the Buccaneers are predicted by the model to run only 63.1 total plays in this game: the 9th-lowest number among all teams this week.
The 10th-smallest volume of plays in football have been run by the Tampa Bay Buccaneers this year (just 55.6 per game on average).
The Buccaneers offensive line grades out as the 2nd-worst in the league last year at opening holes for runners.
The Atlanta defensive tackles profile as the best group of DTs in the NFL this year with their run defense.

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