Baker Mayfield Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 3

NFL · Player Props

Baker Mayfield

QB · Carolina Panthers

Rushing Yards

Carolina Panthers vs New Orleans Saints · Week 3, 2022

Updated Sep 25, 2022 4:50 PM UTC

Analysis

Baker Mayfield Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 10.5 (-112/-115).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 11.5 @ -118 before it was bet down to 10.5 @ -115.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Carolina Panthers as the 8th-most run-oriented team on the slate this week with a 44.2% run rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 2nd-most plays run out of all the games this week at 127.7 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Baker Mayfield to accrue 5.6 carries in this week's game, on average: the 7th-most of all QBs.
THE BLITZ projects Baker Mayfield to be a more important option in his offense's running game this week (19.6% projected Carry Share) than he has been since the start of last season (2.2% in games he has played).
Baker Mayfield has been among the leading quarterbacks in the league at picking up extra rushing yardage, averaging a stellar 2.55 yards-after-contact this year while checking in at the 78th percentile.

Favors Under

The Carolina Panthers will have a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Ben McAdoo, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 2.8% more towards passing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
The Carolina Panthers offensive line grades out as the 8th-worst in the NFL since the start of last season in run blocking.
The New Orleans Saints defense has had the best efficiency against opposing running games since the start of last season, conceding just 3.87 yards-per-carry.
The New Orleans Saints linebackers profile as the 2nd-best collection of LBs in the NFL since the start of last season in regard to stopping the run.
The Carolina Panthers have faced a stacked the box on 19.7% of their plays since the start of last season, 6th-most in football. Bringing an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.