Baker Mayfield Passing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 9

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Baker Mayfield

NFL · Player Props

Baker Mayfield

QB · Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Passing Yards

Chicago Bears vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers · Week 9, 2026

Updated Nov 8, 2026 8:07 PM EST

Analysis

Baker Mayfield Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 208.5 (+100/-102).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 299.5 @ 0 before it was bet down to 208.5 @ -102.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Buccaneers are a 6-point underdog in this week's contest, likely leading to a passing game script.
The Chicago Bears pass defense has displayed weak efficiency this year, conceding 8.71 adjusted yards-per-target: the 3rd-most in football.
This year, the poor Bears defense has given up the 8th-most yards-after-the-catch in the NFL to opposing teams: a massive 4.86 YAC.
The Bears cornerbacks rank as the worst unit in the NFL this year in defending receivers.

Favors Under

Accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Buccaneers to pass on 50.5% of their chances: the 2nd-lowest clip on the slate this week.
Given their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are predicted by the predictive model to call just 63.1 offensive plays in this contest: the 9th-lowest number among all teams this week.
The model projects Baker Mayfield to throw 29.7 passes in this week's game, on average: the 4th-fewest among all QBs.
Opposing QBs teams have been hesitant to pass too much against the Bears, averaging the 4th-fewest attempts in football (a measly 30.5 per game) this year.
Baker Mayfield's 144.0 adjusted passing yards per game this season illustrates a remarkable diminishment in his throwing ability over last season's 185.0 figure.

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