Baker Mayfield Passing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 3

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Baker Mayfield

NFL · Player Props

Baker Mayfield

QB · Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Passing Yards

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Minnesota Vikings · Week 3, 2026

Updated Sep 27, 2026 7:57 PM EST

Analysis

Baker Mayfield Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 224.5 (+114/-137).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The 10th-largest volume of plays in football have been run by the Buccaneers since the start of last season (a whopping 58.3 per game on average).
Baker Mayfield's throwing accuracy has been refined this season, with his Adjusted Completion% rising from 64.0% to 71.4%.
The Minnesota Vikings safeties profile as the 2nd-worst collection of safeties in the league since the start of last season in covering receivers.

Favors Under

The leading projections forecast this game to see the smallest number of plays run out of all the games this week at 120.9 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
In this contest, Baker Mayfield is projected by our trusted projection set to average the 9th-fewest pass attempts out of all quarterbacks with 31.3.
Opposing teams have averaged 28.9 pass attempts per game vs. the Minnesota Vikings defense since the start of last season: 2nd-fewest in football.
Opposing offenses have thrown for the fewest yards in the NFL (just 172.0 adjusted yards per game) vs. the Minnesota Vikings defense since the start of last season.
Since the start of last season, the formidable Vikings defense has surrendered a paltry 66.6% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing offenses: the 3rd-best rate in the NFL.

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