Baker Mayfield Passing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 2

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NFL · Player Props

Baker Mayfield

QB · Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Passing Yards

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Cleveland Browns · Week 2, 2026

Updated Sep 20, 2026 12:58 PM EST

Analysis

Baker Mayfield Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 216.5 (-106/+100).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 205.5 @ -122 before it was bet up to 216.5 @ -106.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Browns safeties grade out as the 8th-best safety corps in the NFL last year in covering pass-catchers.

Favors Under

With a 8-point advantage, the Buccaneers are a heavy favorite this week, implying much more of a reliance on running than their standard game plan.
The leading projections forecast the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to be the 4th-least pass-focused offense on the slate this week with a 51.6% pass rate, based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.
The model projects this game to see the 2nd-lowest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 121.7 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Our trusted projections expect Baker Mayfield to throw 29.4 passes this week, on average: the fewest among all quarterbacks.
Opposing offenses have averaged 28.5 pass attempts per game versus the Browns defense since the start of last season: 2nd-fewest in the league.