Baker Mayfield Passing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 14

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Baker Mayfield

NFL · Player Props

Baker Mayfield

QB · Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Passing Yards

Atlanta Falcons vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers · Week 14, 2023

Updated Dec 10, 2023 6:11 PM EST

Analysis

Baker Mayfield Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 228.5 (-110/-110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 222.5 @ -114 before it was bet up to 228.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The leading projections forecast the Tampa Bay Buccaneers as the 7th-most pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 60.5% pass rate, given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
The leading projections forecast Baker Mayfield to attempt 36.0 passes in this week's game, on balance: the 9th-most out of all quarterbacks.
Baker Mayfield's 223.0 adjusted passing yards per game this season shows a remarkable gain in his throwing ability over last season's 63.0 mark.
When it comes to linebackers in covering receivers, Atlanta's group of LBs has been easily exploitable this year, projecting as the 5th-worst in the league.

Favors Under

The Buccaneers boast a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Dave Canales, and the predictive model expects their pass/run mix to lean 4.9% more towards rushing than it did last year (adjusted for context).
The Buccaneers have called the 10th-fewest plays in the league this year, totaling a mere 56.2 plays per game.
With a subpar 62.3% Adjusted Completion% (18th percentile) this year, Baker Mayfield has been as one of the least accurate QBs in football.
Baker Mayfield is positioned as one of the least efficient QBs in the league this year, averaging a mere 6.55 adjusted yards-per-target while checking in at the lowly 18th percentile.
Opposing teams have completed passes at the 6th-lowest rate in the league versus the Falcons defense this year (66.7% Adjusted Completion%).

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