Baker Mayfield Passing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 13

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Baker Mayfield

NFL · Player Props

Baker Mayfield

QB · Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Passing Yards

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Carolina Panthers · Week 13, 2023

Updated Dec 4, 2023 12:11 AM UTC

Analysis

Baker Mayfield Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 222.5 (+100/-137).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 233.5 @ -117 before it was bet down to 222.5 @ -137.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Baker Mayfield has passed for significantly more adjusted yards per game (231.0) this year than he did last year (63.0).
As it relates to cornerbacks in covering receivers, Carolina's collection of CBs has been easily exploitable this year, profiling as the 8th-worst in the NFL.

Favors Under

Our trusted projections expect the Buccaneers offensive strategy to tilt 4.6% more towards the run game than it did last season (adjusted for context) with offensive coordinator Dave Canales now calling the plays.
With a 3.5-point advantage, the Buccaneers are favored in this game, suggesting more of a reliance on rushing than their usual approach.
The model projects this game to see the 4th-lowest volume of plays run among all games this week at 128.6 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Opposing teams have averaged 30.2 pass attempts per game against the Carolina Panthers defense this year: 2nd-fewest in the league.
Opposing quarterbacks have passed for the 2nd-fewest yards in the league (just 188.0 adjusted yards per game) vs. the Panthers defense this year.

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