Baker Mayfield Interceptions - Player Prop Bet Week 2

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Baker Mayfield

NFL · Player Props

Baker Mayfield

QB · Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Interceptions

Detroit Lions vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers · Week 2, 2024

Updated Sep 15, 2024 7:22 PM EST

Analysis

Baker Mayfield Interceptions Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (-150/+120).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ -135 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ -150.

Key Factors

Favors Over

This week's line implies a passing game script for the Buccaneers, who are -6-point underdogs.
Accounting for their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Buccaneers to pass on 64.0% of their chances: the 2nd-highest frequency on the slate this week.
Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this contest is expected by the model to have 129.8 total plays run: the 5th-most out of all the games this week.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
The predictive model expects Baker Mayfield to throw 37.7 passes in this week's game, on balance: the 4th-most out of all quarterbacks.

Favors Under

The 6th-lowest number of plays in the NFL have been run by the Buccaneers since the start of last season (a lowly 56.4 per game on average).
The Detroit Lions have intercepted 0.91 throws per game since the start of last season, grading out as the 10th-best defense in the league by this stat.
The Lions linebackers grade out as the 7th-best unit in the NFL since the start of last season in covering pass-catchers.

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