Baker Mayfield Interceptions - Player Prop Bet Week 16

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NFL · Player Props

Baker Mayfield

QB · Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Interceptions

Dallas Cowboys vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers · Week 16, 2024

Updated Dec 22, 2024 10:46 PM EST

Analysis

Baker Mayfield Interceptions Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (-130/+100).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ -112 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ -130.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Given the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this contest is forecasted by the projection model to have 132.3 total plays run: the 5th-highest number out of all the games this week.
The passing games of both teams (as it relates to both volume and efficiency) stand to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (read: no wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may slide.
The Buccaneers offensive line profiles as the 4th-best in the NFL this year in protecting the passer, which has a positive influence on all passing attack metrics across the board.
In tallying a massive 1.07 interceptions per game this year, Baker Mayfield ranks among the weakest QBs in the league (5th percentile).
The Cowboys linebackers grade out as the 7th-worst LB corps in the league this year in covering pass-catchers.

Favors Under

With a 4-point advantage, the Buccaneers are favored in this week's contest, suggesting more of a focus on running than their typical game plan.
Opposing offenses have averaged 31.1 pass attempts per game against the Cowboys defense this year: 5th-fewest in football.
The Dallas Cowboys have intercepted 0.87 targets per game this year, ranking as the 10th-best defense in football by this stat.