Baker Mayfield Interceptions - Player Prop Bet Week 9

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Baker Mayfield

NFL · Player Props

Baker Mayfield

QB · Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Interceptions

Houston Texans vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers · Week 9, 2023

Updated Nov 6, 2023 12:51 AM UTC

Analysis

Baker Mayfield Interceptions Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (-125/-104).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ +100 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -104.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to pass on 61.5% of their plays: the 8th-highest clip on the slate this week.
The projections expect the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to run the 8th-most total plays on the slate this week with 65.4 plays, based on their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
The model projects Baker Mayfield to throw 36.9 passes this week, on average: the 7th-most out of all quarterbacks.
The Buccaneers O-line ranks as the 6th-best in football this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a strong impact on all passing game metrics across the board.

Favors Under

The model projects the Tampa Bay Buccaneers offensive blueprint to skew 3.9% more towards rushing than it did last year (adjusted for context) with offensive coordinator Dave Canales now calling the plays.
The 9th-smallest volume of plays in football have been run by the Tampa Bay Buccaneers this year (just 56.7 per game on average).
The Houston cornerbacks profile as the 3rd-best collection of CBs in the league this year in defending receivers.

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