Baker Mayfield Interceptions - Player Prop Bet Week 14

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Baker Mayfield

NFL · Player Props

Baker Mayfield

QB · Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Interceptions

Atlanta Falcons vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers · Week 14, 2023

Updated Dec 11, 2023 4:01 AM UTC

Analysis

Baker Mayfield Interceptions Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (-150/+120).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ +125 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ +120.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The leading projections forecast the Tampa Bay Buccaneers as the 7th-most pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 60.5% pass rate, given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
The leading projections forecast Baker Mayfield to attempt 36.0 passes in this week's game, on balance: the 9th-most out of all quarterbacks.
The Atlanta Falcons have intercepted 0.57 targets per game this year, ranking as the 10th-worst defense in the NFL by this standard
When it comes to linebackers in covering receivers, Atlanta's group of LBs has been easily exploitable this year, projecting as the 5th-worst in the league.

Favors Under

The Buccaneers boast a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Dave Canales, and the predictive model expects their pass/run mix to lean 4.9% more towards rushing than it did last year (adjusted for context).
The Buccaneers have called the 10th-fewest plays in the league this year, totaling a mere 56.2 plays per game.

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