Baker Mayfield Interceptions - Player Prop Bet Week 12

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Baker Mayfield

NFL · Player Props

Baker Mayfield

QB · Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Interceptions

Indianapolis Colts vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers · Week 12, 2023

Updated Nov 26, 2023 8:31 PM EST

Analysis

Baker Mayfield Interceptions Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (-160/+116).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ -137 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ -160.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Buccaneers to pass on 61.2% of their downs: the 9th-greatest frequency among all teams this week.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
In this contest, Baker Mayfield is predicted by the projection model to average the 10th-most pass attempts among all QBs with 36.5.

Favors Under

Our trusted projections expect the Buccaneers offensive scheme to tilt 4.3% more towards the rushing attack than it did last year (context-neutralized) with offensive coordinator Dave Canales now calling the plays.
Opposing teams have played at the 10th-slowest pace in football (adjusted for context) against the Buccaneers defense this year, averaging 28.03 seconds per play.
The Indianapolis Colts have intercepted 1.12 passes per game this year, grading out as the 4th-best defense in football by this statistic.
The Indianapolis Colts safeties rank as the 4th-best safety corps in the NFL this year in covering receivers.

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