Baker Mayfield Completions - Player Prop Bet Week 1

reorder

We’re hiring: Junior AI Product & Automation Engineer — Freelance → Learn More

NFL · Player Props

Baker Mayfield

QB · Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Completions

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Washington Commanders · Week 1, 2024

Updated Sep 8, 2024 7:11 PM EST

Analysis

Baker Mayfield Completions Prop is currently Over/Under 22.5 (+104/-136).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 21.5 @ -121 before it was bet up to 22.5 @ +104.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The projections expect the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to be the 9th-most pass-focused team in the NFL (adjusted for context) at the present time with a 62.3% pass rate.
At the moment, the 7th-quickest paced offense in football (adjusted for context) according to the predictive model is the Buccaneers.
In racking up a whopping 38.9 pass attempts per game last year, Baker Mayfield slots in among the top quarterbacks in football (87th percentile) in this statistic.
The Commanders defense has been a glaring pass funnel last year, compelling opposing offenses to attempt the 8th-most passes in football (35.4 per game) last year.
As it relates to safeties in covering pass-catchers, Washington's unit has been awful last year, grading out as the 7th-worst in the league.

Favors Under

This week's line implies a running game script for the Buccaneers, who are favored by 3.5 points.