Baker Mayfield Completions - Player Prop Bet Week 2

NFL · Player Props

Baker Mayfield

QB · Carolina Panthers

Completions

New York Giants vs Carolina Panthers · Week 2, 2022

Updated Sep 19, 2022 3:00 AM EST

Analysis

Baker Mayfield Completions Prop is currently Over/Under 19.5 (-123/-111).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 20.5 @ -139 before it was bet down to 19.5 @ -111.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Carolina Panthers boast a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Ben McAdoo, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 1.8% more towards passing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 2nd-largest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 131.4 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Carolina Panthers have run the 10th-most plays in football since the start of last season, totaling a colossal 63.6 plays per game.
Opposing QBs have averaged 35.9 pass attempts per game vs. the New York Giants defense since the start of last season: 9th-most in the NFL.
Opposing QBs have completed passes at the 9th-highest rate in the NFL versus the New York Giants defense since the start of last season (71.8%).

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Carolina Panthers to be the 11th-least pass-centric offense among all teams this week with a 57.8% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The Carolina Panthers O-line profiles as the worst in the NFL since the start of last season in protecting the passer, which has a negative effect on all pass game statistics across the board.
Baker Mayfield has been among the least accurate QBs in the league since the start of last season with a 61.3% Completion%, checking in at the 25th percentile.
The Carolina Panthers offensive line has given their QB a mere 2.39 seconds before getting pressured (4th-worst in football since the start of last season), which has a harmful impact on all air attack statistics across the board.
The New York Giants have stacked the box against opponents on just 11.4% of their plays since the start of last season, 5th-least in football. Choosing not to keep an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.