Baker Mayfield Completions - Player Prop Bet Week 11

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Baker Mayfield

NFL · Player Props

Baker Mayfield

QB · Carolina Panthers

Completions

Baltimore Ravens vs Carolina Panthers · Week 11, 2022

Updated Nov 20, 2022 5:26 PM UTC

Analysis

Baker Mayfield Completions Prop is currently Over/Under 17.5 (-117/-113).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 17.5 @ -112 before it was bet down to 17.5 @ -113.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Carolina Panthers boast a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Ben McAdoo, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 1.8% more towards passing than it did last year (adjusted for context).
The Panthers are an enormous 13-point underdog in this week's game, likely creating an extreme passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Carolina Panthers as the 8th-most pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 62.1% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 38.6 pass attempts per game vs. the Baltimore Ravens defense this year: 3rd-most in the league.
The Carolina Panthers offensive line profiles as the best in the NFL this year in protecting the QB, which has a strong effect on all pass game stats across the board.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Panthers to call the 2nd-least plays on offense among all teams this week with 61.4 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Carolina Panthers have run the least plays in the league this year, averaging a lowly 52.6 plays per game.
The weather forecast calls for 17-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means reduced pass volume (and increased run volume) and worse passing efficiency.
The Baltimore Ravens safeties grade out as the 7th-best unit in football this year in pass coverage.
The Carolina Panthers O-line has allowed their QB a mere 2.39 seconds before getting pressured (4th-worst in football since the start of last season), which has a negative impact on all pass game statistics across the board.

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