Baker Mayfield Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 2

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Baker Mayfield

NFL · Player Props

Baker Mayfield

QB · Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Carries

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Cleveland Browns · Week 2, 2026

Updated Sep 20, 2026 12:37 PM EST

Analysis

Baker Mayfield Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (+110/-150).

Key Factors

Favors Over

With a 8-point advantage, the Buccaneers are a heavy favorite this week, implying much more of a reliance on running than their standard game plan.
The model projects the Buccaneers as the 4th-most run-focused team on the slate this week with a 48.4% run rate, accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.

Favors Under

The model projects this game to see the 2nd-lowest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 121.7 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Browns defensive ends grade out as the 3rd-best DE corps in the league since the start of last season when it comes to run defense.

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