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Baker Mayfield

Baker Mayfield Carries
Player Prop Week 12

Indianapolis Colts vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Baker Mayfield Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (+125/-155).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Our trusted projections expect the Buccaneers offensive scheme to tilt 4.3% more towards the rushing attack than it did last year (context-neutralized) with offensive coordinator Dave Canales now calling the plays.

As it relates to the safeties' role in stopping the run, Indianapolis's safety corps has been terrible this year, ranking as the 3rd-worst in the league. in the league.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Our trusted projections expect the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to be the 6th-least run-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 38.8% run rate, accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.

Opposing teams have played at the 10th-slowest pace in football (adjusted for context) against the Buccaneers defense this year, averaging 28.03 seconds per play.

This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.

When it comes to opening holes for runners (and the importance it has on all ground game stats), the O-line of the Buccaneers profiles as the 4th-worst in the NFL last year.

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