Baker Mayfield Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 1

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Baker Mayfield

NFL · Player Props

Baker Mayfield

QB · Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Carries

Minnesota Vikings vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers · Week 1, 2023

Updated Sep 10, 2023 8:31 PM UTC

Analysis

Baker Mayfield Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (+125/-160).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers boast a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Dave Canales, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 7.5% more towards rushing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 3rd-highest volume of plays run among all games this week at 130.6 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have called the most plays in the league since the start of last season, totaling a monstrous 63.8 plays per game.

Favors Under

The Buccaneers are a 4.5-point underdog this week, indicating a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Tampa Bay Buccaneers as the 10th-least run-centric offense among all teams this week with a 39.5% run rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers O-line ranks as the 5th-worst in the NFL since the start of last season at blocking for the run game.
The Minnesota Vikings defensive tackles project as the best DT corps in the NFL since the start of last season with their run defense.

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