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Bailey Zappe

Bailey Zappe TD Passes
Player Prop Week 5

New England Patriots vs Detroit Lions

 
 
 
Bailey Zappe TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+163/-225).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The New England Patriots will be forced to use backup quarterback Bailey Zappe in this week's game, which typically means fewer pass attempts and more rushing.
  • Opposing offenses have averaged 40.2 pass attempts per game versus the Detroit Lions defense this year: 7th-most in the NFL.
  • The New England Patriots offensive line ranks as the 5th-best in football this year in protecting the passer, which has a strong impact on all pass attack stats across the board.
  • Opposing quarterbacks have completed passes at the 9th-highest rate in the league versus the Detroit Lions defense this year (72.8%).
  • The Detroit Lions defense has allowed the 9th-most passing TDs in football: 1.75 per game this year.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The Patriots are a 3-point favorite this week, which points towards a rushing game script.
  • THE BLITZ projects the New England Patriots as the 3rd-least pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 52.4% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
  • THE BLITZ projects the New England Patriots as the 10th-least pass-centric team in the NFL near the goal line (context-neutralized) right now with a 56.3% red zone pass rate.
  • THE BLITZ projects the New England Patriots as the 5th-most sluggish paced defense in football (context-neutralized) right now, leading opposing offenses to average 29.07 seconds per play.
  • The weather forecast calls for 12-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means reduced pass volume (and increased run volume) and lessened passing efficiency.

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