Bailey Zappe Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 15

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Bailey Zappe

NFL · Player Props

Bailey Zappe

QB · New England Patriots

Carries

New England Patriots vs Kansas City Chiefs · Week 15, 2023

Updated Dec 17, 2023 3:56 PM EST

Analysis

Bailey Zappe Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (+135/-170).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 2.5 @ -120 before it was bet down to 2.5 @ -170.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Patriots rank as the 6th-most run-focused offense in the NFL (adjusted for context) this year with a 41.7% run rate.
The leading projections forecast Bailey Zappe to be a more important option in his team's running game this week (12.1% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (4.4% in games he has played).
The Kansas City Chiefs safeties grade out as the 26th-worst unit in the league this year in regard to run defense.

Favors Under

At a -3.5-point disadvantage, the Patriots are underdogs in this game, indicating more of a focus on moving the ball through the air than their normal game plan.
The predictive model expects this game to see the 4th-largest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 131.5 plays, given the traits of each team and game dynamics.
The weather report calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means higher pass volume, and lower ground volume, higher TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
In totaling a measly 1.2 carries per game this year, Bailey Zappe slots in among the bottom QBs in football (15th percentile) as it relates to rushing usage.

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