Bailey Zappe Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 14

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Bailey Zappe

NFL · Player Props

Bailey Zappe

QB · New England Patriots

Carries

Pittsburgh Steelers vs New England Patriots · Week 14, 2023

Updated Dec 8, 2023 3:47 AM UTC

Analysis

Bailey Zappe Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (+105/-135).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 2.5 @ +115 before it was bet up to 2.5 @ +105.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Right now, the 8th-most run-centric offense in the league (41.2% context-neutralized) according to our trusted projection set is the Patriots.
The leading projections forecast the New England Patriots offense to be the 6th-quickest paced team in the NFL (context-neutralized) at the present time, averaging 26.77 seconds per play.
The leading projections forecast Bailey Zappe to be a much bigger part of his offense's ground game in this week's contest (10.4% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (3.0% in games he has played).

Favors Under

This game's line implies a throwing game script for the Patriots, who are -5.5-point underdogs.
Bailey Zappe has averaged just 0.8 rush attempts per game this year, one of the lowest rates in football among QBs (4th percentile).
The Steelers defensive tackles project as the 10th-best DT corps in the league this year in regard to run defense.

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