Austin Ekeler Touchdowns - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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Austin Ekeler

NFL · Player Props

Austin Ekeler

RB · Washington Commanders

Touchdowns

Washington Commanders vs Indianapolis Colts · Week 4, 2026

Updated Oct 4, 2026 3:47 PM EST

Analysis

Austin Ekeler Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+900/-1011).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Washington Commanders will be starting backup quarterback Marcus Mariota in this week's game, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rushing.
The Commanders are a 5-point underdog in this week's game, likely leading to a passing game script.
At the present time, the 7th-quickest paced team in the NFL (in a neutral context) according to our trusted projection set is the Commanders.
Opposing QBs have averaged 36.1 pass attempts per game against the Colts defense since the start of last season: 3rd-most in football.
Our trusted projections expect Austin Ekeler to be much less involved in his team's ground game near the goal line in this game (7.6% projected Red Zone Carry Share) than he has been last year (28.6% in games he has played).

Favors Under

At the present time, the 5th-least pass-oriented offense in the NFL (58.0% in a neutral context) according to the projection model is the Commanders.
The Colts pass defense has surrendered the 9th-lowest Adjusted Completion% in the NFL (78.6%) versus running backs since the start of last season (78.6%).
The Indianapolis Colts defense has allowed the 9th-fewest touchdowns through the air in the league to RBs: 0.15 per game since the start of last season.

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