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Austin Ekeler

Austin Ekeler Rushing Yards
Player Prop Week 2

Washington Commanders vs New York Giants

Austin Ekeler Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 19.5 (-115/-115).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 19.5 @ -110 before it was bet down to 19.5 @ -115.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

With a 3-point advantage, the Commanders are favored this week, suggesting more of a focus on running than their usual approach.

Accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Washington Commanders to run on 49.4% of their opportunities: the 3rd-greatest frequency on the slate this week.

The projections expect the Commanders offense to be the 8th-quickest paced team in the NFL (context-neutralized) at the present time, averaging 27.27 seconds per snap.

Washington's passing stats since the start of last season may be artificially propped up a bit (and rushing stats too low) on account of playing the 10th-most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in the NFL. We figure to be able to count on some regression with windier conditions in this game.

Since the start of last season, the strong New York Giants run defense has allowed a meager 4.88 adjusted yards-per-carry to the opposition's rushing attack: the 30th-smallest rate in the league.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

While Austin Ekeler has received 50.6% of his offense's carries in games he has played since the start of last season, the leading projections forecast him to be a much smaller part of Washington's rushing attack in this week's game at 15.3%.

With a lousy rate of 3.46 adjusted yards per carry (12th percentile) since the start of last season, Austin Ekeler has been among the weakest running backs in football at the position.

Austin Ekeler grades out as one of the weakest running backs in the NFL at generating extra rushing yardage, averaging a lowly 2.64 yards-after-contact since the start of last season while ranking in the 24th percentile.

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