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Austin Ekeler

Austin Ekeler Rushing Yards
Player Prop Week 1

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Washington Commanders

Austin Ekeler Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 29.5 (+115/-145).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 25.5 @ -110 before it was bet up to 29.5 @ +115.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The leading projections forecast the Washington Commanders to be the 8th-most run-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 45.1% run rate, accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.

Given their underlying play style and game dynamics, the Commanders are forecasted by our trusted projection set to run 65.7 plays on offense in this game: the 9th-highest number among all teams this week.

The Washington Commanders have played in the 10th-most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in the NFL last year, which should result in lower pass volume, increased running volume, and reduced passing attack efficiency when facing windier conditions in this week's game.

The Buccaneers defensive ends profile as the worst unit in the NFL last year when it comes to stopping the run.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

A passing game script is suggested by the Commanders being a -3.5-point underdog in this week's game.

The projections expect Austin Ekeler to be a much smaller part of his team's run game in this game (29.5% projected Carry Share) than he has been last year (52.5% in games he has played).

Austin Ekeler's running effectiveness (3.43 adjusted yards per carry) has been some of the worst in the NFL last year (12th percentile when it comes to running backs).

Austin Ekeler is positioned as one of the weakest running backs in football at generating extra ground yardage, averaging a lowly 2.63 yards-after-contact last year while ranking in the 20th percentile.

Last year, the daunting Buccaneers run defense has allowed a feeble 98.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground to the opposing side: the 6th-best in football.

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