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Austin Ekeler Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 54.5 (-145/+105).
The money has been on the Over as it opened 53.5 @ -125 before it was bet up to 54.5 @ -145.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
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The Chargers are a 3.5-point favorite in this week's contest, likely leading to a rushing game script.THE BLITZ projects this game to have the smallest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 135.0 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.The Los Angeles Chargers have run the 2nd-most plays in the league this year, averaging a monstrous 63.4 plays per game.Austin Ekeler has garnered 58.5% of his team's carries this year, ranking him in the 91st percentile among running backs.The Indianapolis Colts have stacked the box against opponents on just 13.1% of their plays since the start of last season, least in the league. Choosing not to keep an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
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THE BLITZ projects the Los Angeles Chargers as the least run-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 33.8% run rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.The Los Angeles Chargers offensive line grades out as the worst in the league this year at blocking for rushers.Austin Ekeler has run for many fewer yards per game (51.0) this year than he did last year (61.0).Austin Ekeler has been among the weakest RBs in the NFL at grinding out extra running yardage, averaging a mere 2.75 yards-after-contact this year while ranking in the 24th percentile.
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