Austin Ekeler Rushing TD - Player Prop Bet Week 9

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Austin Ekeler

NFL · Player Props

Austin Ekeler

RB · Los Angeles Chargers

Rushing TD

Atlanta Falcons vs Los Angeles Chargers · Week 9, 2022

Updated Nov 6, 2022 5:51 PM EST

Analysis

Austin Ekeler Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+130/-178).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +158 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +130.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Los Angeles Chargers offense to be the 3rd-fastest paced team in football (adjusted for context) at the moment, averaging 26.09 seconds per play.
Austin Ekeler has received 56.5% of his offense's red zone carries this year, putting him in the 89th percentile among RBs.
Austin Ekeler has run for 0.71 TDs per game on the ground this year (on average), one of the largest figures in the NFL among RBs (94th percentile).
Opposing teams have rushed for the 5th-most TDs in football (1.25 per game) vs. the Atlanta Falcons defense this year.
The Atlanta Falcons have stacked the box versus opponents on just 11.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 6th-least in the NFL. Choosing not to keep an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Los Angeles Chargers to be the 3rd-least run-oriented team in the NFL near the end zone (context-neutralized) right now with a 35.8% red zone run rate.
The Los Angeles Chargers O-line grades out as the 4th-worst in the league this year in run blocking.
The Los Angeles Chargers have gone up against a stacked the box on 18.4% of their plays since the start of last season, 9th-most in football. Positioning an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

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