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Austin Ekeler

Austin Ekeler Rushing TD
Player Prop Week 14

Los Angeles Chargers vs Miami Dolphins

Austin Ekeler Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+170/-243).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -242 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -243.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

THE BLITZ projects the Los Angeles Chargers offense as the 4th-quickest paced team in the NFL (context-neutralized) right now, averaging 26.40 seconds per play.

Austin Ekeler has received 70.3% of his team's red zone rush attempts this year, ranking in the 96th percentile among running backs.

Austin Ekeler has rushed for 0.58 TDs per game on the ground this year (on average), one of the highest marks in the league among RBs (90th percentile).

The Los Angeles Chargers have gone for it on 4th down 27.6% of the time since the start of last season (2nd-most in the league), which generally means more offensive volume, more TD potential, and higher offensive metrics across the board.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Chargers are a 3.5-point underdog this week, indicating a passing game script.

THE BLITZ projects the Los Angeles Chargers as the 2nd-least run-centric team in football near the end zone (adjusted for context) at the present time with a 34.1% red zone run rate.

The Los Angeles Chargers O-line grades out as the 5th-worst in the league this year at opening holes for runners.

The Miami Dolphins defensive ends profile as the 2nd-best DE corps in the league this year with their run defense.

The Los Angeles Chargers have been faced with a stacked the box on 18.4% of their plays since the start of last season, 9th-most in football. Positioning an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

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