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Austin Ekeler

Austin Ekeler Receptions
Player Prop Week 6

Baltimore Ravens vs Washington Commanders

Austin Ekeler Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (-186/+140).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 2.5 @ -177 before it was bet up to 2.5 @ -186.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

This week's spread implies an extreme throwing game script for the Commanders, who are big -8-point underdogs.

Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 40.6 pass attempts per game against the Ravens defense this year: 5th-most in the NFL.

In this week's game, Austin Ekeler is expected by the projection model to find himself in the 90th percentile among RBs with 4.1 targets.

The Washington Commanders offensive line grades out as the best in the league this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a strong impact on all passing attack statistics across the board.

With a terrific 2.8 adjusted catches per game (77th percentile) this year, Austin Ekeler ranks as one of the leading RBs in the pass game in football.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The leading projections forecast the Washington Commanders as the 9th-least pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 55.2% pass rate, based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.

Accounting for their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Commanders are forecasted by the projection model to call only 62.3 total plays in this contest: the 4th-lowest number among all teams this week.

Austin Ekeler's 14.5 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that assesses high-value offensive usage) has been significantly lower this season than it was last season at 19.8.

The Baltimore Ravens pass defense has yielded the lowest Adjusted Completion% in the league (70.6%) to running backs this year (70.6%).

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