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Austin Ekeler

Austin Ekeler Receptions
Player Prop Week 5

Washington Commanders vs Cleveland Browns

Austin Ekeler Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (+130/-170).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 2.5 @ -160 before it was bet down to 2.5 @ -170.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

At a -3-point disadvantage, the Commanders are underdogs in this week's game, suggesting more of an emphasis on throwing than their usual game plan.

In this week's game, Austin Ekeler is forecasted by the projections to find himself in the 79th percentile among running backs with 3.5 targets.

Austin Ekeler has been a big part of his team's offense, earning a Target Share of 13.6% since the start of last season, which ranks in the 93rd percentile among running backs.

The Commanders O-line profiles as the best in football this year in protecting the QB, which has a positive impact on all passing attack stats across the board.

Austin Ekeler has been one of the leading pass-catching running backs since the start of last season, averaging a terrific 3.5 adjusted receptions per game while checking in at the 96th percentile.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The predictive model expects the Washington Commanders to be the 4th-least pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 51.8% pass rate, accounting for their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.

Right now, the 6th-slowest paced team in football (context-neutralized) according to the projection model is the Commanders.

Since the start of last season, the daunting Browns defense has conceded a feeble 78.2% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing RBs: the 7th-lowest rate in football.

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