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Austin Ekeler Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (-174/+126).
The money has been on the Over as it opened 2.5 @ -166 before it was bet up to 2.5 @ -174.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
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The projections expect the Commanders offense to be the 8th-quickest paced team in the NFL (context-neutralized) at the present time, averaging 27.27 seconds per snap.The model projects Austin Ekeler to accrue 4.2 targets this week, on average, ranking him in the 91st percentile among RBs.Austin Ekeler has been a big part of his team's offense, garnering a Target Share of 14.0% since the start of last season, which ranks in the 93rd percentile among RBs.Austin Ekeler profiles as one of the best pass-catching running backs since the start of last season, averaging an excellent 3.6 adjusted receptions per game while ranking in the 96th percentile.Since the start of last season, the weak New York Giants pass defense has surrendered a whopping 90.1% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing RBs: the 2nd-largest rate in football.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
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With a 3-point advantage, the Commanders are favored this week, suggesting more of a focus on running than their usual approach.Based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Washington Commanders to pass on 50.6% of their opportunities: the 3rd-lowest clip among all teams this week.Washington's passing stats since the start of last season may be artificially propped up a bit (and rushing stats too low) on account of playing the 10th-most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in the NFL. We figure to be able to count on some regression with windier conditions in this game.With a weak 73.7% Adjusted Catch% (20th percentile) since the start of last season, Austin Ekeler rates among the worst possession receivers in the NFL when it comes to running backs.When it comes to defensive tackles rushing the passer, New York's collection of DTs has been great since the start of last season, profiling as the 2nd-best in the league.
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